Economic calendar: Inflation day

Summary:

  • UK inflation is expected to accelerate slightly in March
  • EMU inflation for March to confirm the dovish ECB stance
  • Canadian inflation could be the largest mover for CAD today
  • DoE release could influence oil prices in the short-term

9:30 am GMT - UK inflation: The British pound was little changed following the labour market data signalling that macroeconomic releases are not the most important right now as Brexit still dominates. The consensus suggests that both headline and core price growth have grown in March to 2% and 1.9% respectively. The data ought to have a limited impact on the pound unless we are offered a surprisingly different from expectations reading.

10:00 am GMT - EMU inflation: The European Central Bank roiled another round of TLTRO earlier this year aimed at reviving stuttering economic growth momentum in the Eurozone. Price pressure remains below the ECB’s desirable level and headline price growth is expected to come down in the months to come due to base effects in energy. Thus, major attention in the upcoming months should be paid to core price growth reflecting demand-driven price pressure, the most important from the ECB’ standpoint.

1:30 pm GMT - Canadian inflation: Another inflation report will come from Canada and from the FX viewpoint it could exert the largest impact compared to the two previous releases. Headline price growth is forecast to have grown 1.9% YoY, up from 1.5% YoY while core price growth to have stayed broadly unchanged around 1.8% YoY. Given the fact that the Canadian economy is strongly reliant on its neighbour United States, today’s data could be particularly relevant in terms of future moves of the BoC.

1:30 pm GMT - US trade data: The US trade data has entered a group of the most important releases given ongoing trade negotiations and related tensions between the US and China. The median estimate suggests that the US trade deficit has widened to $53.4 billion from 51.1 billion in February.

3:30 pm GMT - DoE oil inventories: The consensus before the governmental reading on US inventories points to a 1.6 million barrels increase, however, given yesterday's API report one may suppose that expectations are skewed slightly to the downside. On top of this, gasoline inventories are expected to have fallen 1.7 million barrels.

7:00 pm GMT - Fed’s Beige Book

Central bankers’ speeches:

  • 2:00 pm GMT - BoE’s Carney

  • 3:30 pm GMT - ECB’s Lautenchlaeger

  • 5:30 pm GMT - Fed’s Harker

  • 5:45 pm GMT - Fed’s Bullard

  • 10:30 pm GMT - Fed’s Logan

The USDCAD is trading in the midst of its range from recent days before the Canadian inflation data. Source: xStation5

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