Economic calendar: The day of PMIs

Summary:

  • Preliminary PMIs from major European economies for July
  • PMIs from the US, new home sales for June
  • Weekly DoE release on crude oil inventories

8:15/8:30/9:00 am BST - preliminary PMIs for July from France/Germany/EMU: Expectations ahead of today’s readings are rather low as all but nobody expects any material recovery in case of French or German manufacturing. Numbers for services sectors are also expected to stay close their June’s levels. Irrespective of expectations, there is no doubt that this round of PMIs (for July) could be remarkably important in terms of the ECB’s meeting on Thursday. If companies take the latest ECB’s announcement seriously, we may spot some improvement in case of sentiment. 

2:45 pm BST - preliminary PMIs for July from the US: A Fed’s rate cut next week has been already taken for granted, however, today’s data may trim expectations regarding a 50bps rate decrease. The consensus points to a slight rebound to 51 from 50.6 in case of manufacturing and the same slight pick-up to 51.6 from 51.5 for the services sector. 

3:00 pm BST - new home sales for June from the US: The data on existing home sales for June disappointed, hence the consensus calling for as many as 658k new homes sold could also be tough to beat. 

3:30 pm BST - DoE report on US oil inventories: The API release showed a massive 11 million barrels decline, thus market participants may expect a larger draw than the official Bloomberg consensus of a 4.4 million barrels decline. On the other hand, the API report also showed a huge 4.4 million barrels increase in terms of gasoline stockpiles, the biggest one since January.

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