Crypto newsletter: Why does Bitcoin tend to rally during weekends?

Summary:

  • Several reasons why Bitcoin tends to appreciate during weekends
  • Interest of crypto-related applications has not seen any increase so far this year
  • “Crypto assets do not pose a threat to global financial stability”, G20 leaders wrote in a declaration

Bitcoin likes weekends

Taking a look at history one may notice that Bitcoin tends to appreciate over weekends, however, this uncertain why it happens. First and foremost, let us recall that Bitcoin trades during weekends due to the fact it is available in decentralized markets, as opposed to bond or equity markets. So, why does Bitcoin tend to gain in the days when other markets are closed? Bloomberg has recently reported several reasons trying to justify this trend (neither of them was tested statistically though). The first one suggests that large crypto-related corporations tend to make big announcements on Mondays, thus investors may want to be ahead those announcements attempting to benefit from them. The second possible reason says that people have more free time during weekends, hence they have more opportunities to talk about it with their friends. If they become more cognizant of larger price moves, they may want to step in the market right now. The third reason is closely related to the previous one and suggests that people are afraid of missing out (a so-called FOMO effect). In short, when the price skyrockets over a week, there is a greater likelihood that this move will be extended into a weekend. The last one says that crypto investors like to analyse CFTC reports, being released each Friday (shortly before the US closing bell), and then feel more confident when making decisions.

Ripple broke back below its trend line. The price has stopped falling when it has struck the 50% retracement of the latest upward move. The further price direction will depend on how the price behaves around the current levels. Source: xStation5

Interest of crypto apps remains stable

In spite of the fact that we have seen a wild rally in the Bitcoin price (other cryptocurrencies have seen some notable gains as well), the same trend has yet to be observed in case of a number of downloads of crypto-related applications. In the first half of this year this number has hit 67 million crypto apps on their smartphones compared to 65.8 million in the first six months of last year. Last week, we pointed to a small number of people who search for Bitcoin in Google. This week we present almost no increase in interest of crypto-related apps among consumers. These two information could be a sign that this time the price rally is more driven by larger investors than retailers.

No growth has been seen so far this year in terms of interest of crypto-related applications. Source: Bloomberg

G20 about cryptocurrencies

The G20 summit which took place in Osaka, Japan during the past weekend was important for traditional assets. However, this event also touched digital currencies and their role in the global economy. The G20 leaders said that “while crypto-assets do not pose a threat to global financial stability at this point, we are closely monitoring developments and remain vigilant to existing and emerging risks”. Moreover, they agreed that “a wider use of new type of crypto-assets for retail payment purposes would warrant close scrutiny by authorities to ensure that they are subject to high standards of regulation”. Such comments seem to suggest that G20 leaders have taken a serious approach to cryptocurrencies as well as the process of digitization as a whole.

Bitcoin has given back some of its gains after topping $13k. However, the price has managed to stay above the key trend line, hence one may suppose that bulls have yet to say their last word. Source: xStation5

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