Summary:
- PMIs from European economies
- US manufacturing ISM
- BoE rate decision, Czech Republic central bank to decide on rates as well
8:00 am BST - manufacturing PMIs for July: Indices from Poland, Hungary and Norway
8:15/8:30 am BST - manufacturing PMIs for July: Indices from Spain/Czech Republic, Switzerland
8:45/8:50/8:55/9:00 am BST - manufacturing PMIs for July: Indices from Italy/France/Germany/EMU, it is worth noting that there will be final readings except Italy from where no preliminary readings are offered. The same concerns Spain from where we are not offered preliminary PMIs.
9:30 am BST - manufacturing PMI for July from the UK: The index for the United Kingdom is expected to have fallen to 47.6 from 48. The data is unlikely to exert a larger reaction on the pound given the fact that GBP traders are awaiting the BoE rate decision which will be much more important.
12:00 pm BST - BoE rate decision: Nobody expects changes in either rates or other settings of monetary policy in the UK at today’s meeting. On the other hand, market-based expectations suggest the BoE could choose to cut rates by the year-end assigning 50% chance for such a scenario. Along with today’s decision an inflation report as well as minutes from the meeting will be released. Mark Carney will talk to journalists at 12:30 pm.
12:00 pm BST - Czech Republic rate decision: The consensus points to a stable main rate at 2%.
12:30 pm BST - Challenger report from the US on planned layoffs for July
1:30 pm BST - initial jobless claims: The consensus points to a slight uptick to 214k from 206k last week.
2:30 pm BST - manufacturing PMI from Canada for July: Candian economic releases have been surprising to the upside lately, hence market participants could watch carefully if this trend has been kept in this case.
2:45/3:00 pm BST - manufacturing PMI/ISM from the US for July: The Fed did what it had to do and has become yet more data-dependent. As a result, each incoming reading will be important in assessing the probability of further rate cuts there. The consensus for PMI points to 50 (final), and for ISM points to 52.
