Economic calendar: Big day for pound, payrolls from Canada

Summary:

  • Preliminary GDP along with industrial output from the UK
  • Canadian jobs report on the agenda
  • US PPI to shed some light ahead of CPI data next week

9:30 am BST - Preliminary GDP for Q2 from the UK and industrial production data for June: Speaking about the British economy we immediately think about Brexit which is going to be a major event later this year with serious ramifications for the real economy and financial markets as well. On that account, macroeconomic releases have been played down recently to some extent as nothing beyond Brexit seems to be possible to affect either monetary or fiscal policy. Either way, today’s GDP data may influence the pound and UK bonds, stocks to a large extent if the pace of growth misses not demanding expectations placed at 0% QoQ. At the same time, we’ll know industrial production data for June which is expected to have fallen 0.2% MoM while manufacturing production to have declined 0.3% MoM. 

10:00 am BST - Inflation from Italy for July (final): The consensus calls for a 0.4% YoY increase in terms of HICP.

1:30 pm BST - US PPI for July: As far as the US economy we often look at PPI data to set expectations ahead of a CPI report which is due next week (Tuesday). Expectations ahead of today’s release point to a 1.7% YoY increase in case of headline and 2.3% YoY in case of a core PPI gauge. 

1:30 pm BST - Jobs report from Canada for July: The Canadian economy has been thriving despite numerous risks being located abroad, including a growth deceleration in the United States. That is why market participants are quite sceptical when it comes to a need for lower rates there with OIS pricing seeing less than 60% chance for a single 25 bps cut by the year-end (it looks relatively low compared to pricing concerning other central banks). For that reason, today’s report will be crucial and a nice beat ought to enough to stave off rising expectations for rate cuts in the near-term. The consensus indicates that 15k new jobs were added last month while the jobless rate is expected to have remained at 5.5%. 

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