Economic calendar: Canadian retail sales in the limelight

Summary:

  • Canadian retail sales for June among the highest priority readings
  • Preliminary data regarding US consumer confidence
  • Retail sales from the Polish economy on the agenda too

9:00 am BST - EMU current account balance for May

9:00 am BST - Polish retail sales for June: The Polish economy keeps booming fuelled by solid wage growth and excellent consumer confidence. On top of that, households will soon be offered additional income coming from extending the “500+ program” (500 PLN paid for each child per month) later this quarter and changes in taxes. It should support consumer spending and be an important contributor to this year’s GDP growth. In June retail sales are forecast to have increased 6% YoY (current prices) but the unfavourable calendar effect (-2 working days compared to 2018) may lead to somewhat lower growth. 

1:30 pm BST - Canadian retail sales for May: The consensus calls for a 0.3% MoM increase and a 0.4% MoM in case of core sales (ex. auto). Keep in mind that the latest economic readings from the Canadian economy have been quite positive, hence it could prompt some market participants to not to expect ant rate cuts in response to those made by the Fed.

3:00 pm BST - US consumer confidence by UoM for July: The preliminary reading for July is expected to show an uptick to 98.8 from 98.2 points. Moreover, both current conditions and expectations are expected to improve to some extent. The solid data from this front would be another signal that deep rate cuts are redundant there. 

Central bankers’ speeches: 

  • 4:10 pm BST - Fed’s Bullard

  • 9:30 pm BST - Fed’s Rosengren

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