- US housing market data in the spotlight after huge increase in existing home sales
- Will CB consumer confidence follow higher after UoM data?
- Central Bank of Hungary expected to leave rates unchanged
Almost every noteworthy reading scheduled for Tuesday comes from the United States. Housing market data will be released in the early afternoon, followed by CB survey hour and a half later. Oil may become more volatile in the evening as API estimates are forecasted to show 2.4 million barrel drop. In the meantime, Central Bank of Hungary will announce interest rate decision (1:00 pm GMT). However, the main interest rate is expected to remain unchanged at 0.9%.
12:30 pm GMT - US, Housing market data for February. Existing home sales data released at the end of the previous week snapped a streak of lacklustre data with enormous jump higher. The Federal Reserve ruled out any rate hikes this year during last week’s meeting, a development that should support housing market. What’s interesting, impact from this dovish shift should be seen from March or April, not February. Today’s data will offer insight whether existing home sales surprise was a one-off related to secondary market or is it a start of a rebound on the whole US housing market.
2:00 pm GMT - US, CB consumer confidence for March. Preliminary data from the University of Michigan for March saw headline index leaping significantly higher. Michigan and Conference Board indices moved in tandem this year and both took a dive in January and February. Having said that, there is a chance that today’s CB print will show an improvement, just as Michigan’s data did. Market consensus expects a minor increase from 131.4 pts to 132 pts.
8:40 pm GMT - API report on oil inventories. Oil underperformed at the end of the previous week as the US 3m10y yield curve inversion sparked recession fears. However, markets seem to have played down these fears this week. Add to that renewed tensions in Venezuela and we get a good landscape for oil price gains. This is exactly what happened yesterday but one should be aware that any longer recovery may be questioned by API or DOE data. The former is expected to report a 2.4 million barrel drop in oil inventories.
Central bank speakers scheduled for today:
- 7:45 am GMT - Fed’s Harker
- 10:30 am GMT - Fed’s Evans
- 11:00 am GMT - Riksbank’s Skingsley
- 11:00 am GMT - BoE’s Broadbent
- 7:05 pm GMT - Fed’s Daly
Last week’s FOMC meeting sent the main currency pair towards the 200-session moving average. However, EURUSD failed to break above and the trading range was upheld. The pair struggles in the vicinity of the 1.13 handle at press time and in case we see a bounce higher, the aforementioned moving average could be treated as the nearest resistance level. Source: xStation5