Economic calendar: Day of PMIs and ECB minutes

Summary:

  • European PMIs in the spotlight in the morning, US PMIs in the afternoon
  • IFO survey for May to be published before noon
  • ECB minutes unlikely to be a game-changer
  • US new home sales as well as another regional Fed index

8:15 am BST/8:30/9:00 - preliminary PMIs for May from France/Germany/EMU: We have been got accustomed recently to disappointments in manufacturing PMIs in Europe. In April many market observers counted on a substantial improvement which did not occur. Expectations before today’s releases are less optimistic and incorporate only a slight improvement in manufacturing PMI at the European level to 48.1 from 47.9. The same concerns services PMI where a tiny recovery is estimated. On the other hand, one needs to be aware that PMIs in Europe have diverged recently from ‘hard data’, hence their importance could have been lowered to some extent.

10:00 am BST - German IFO: Apart from German PMIs we will also get a preliminary reading of IFO for May. This survey mirrors sentiment among German entrepreneurs and it is considered one of the most credible surveys in the country. The consensus points to a marginal decline to 99.1 from 99.2 while the index for expectations is expected to have fallen to 95 from 95.2.

12:30 pm BST - ECB minutes: The release is unlikely to be a game-changer for the common currency. Everybody awaits the details of recently announced TLTRO which are expected in June.

2:45 pm BST/3:00/4:00 - US PMIs/US new home sales for April/regional Fed index from Kansas: The account of the discussion between FOMC members released yesterday did not offer to much new stuff. The US central bank seems to have taken a cautious approach, however, not rate cuts are expected right now. One needs to be aware that US PMIs could be affected by concerns regarding the latest trade war escalation, European PMIs may be as well. The consensus calls for a marginal rise in case of the manufacturing index to 52.7 from 52.6 and an increase to 53.5 from 53 for services. In turn, new home sales are forecast to have declined 2.5% MoM (to 675k from 692k), whereas the regional Fed index for manufacturing from Kansas (for May) is expected to have grown to 6 from 5.

Central bankers’ speeches:

  • 9:30 am BST - Riksbank’s Skingsley

  • 9:40 am BST - ECB’s Guindos

  • 5:00 pm BST - ECB’s Nowotny

  • 6:00 pm BST - Fed’s Kaplan

Daily summary: Global stocks finish week in upbeat mood
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Morning wrap (27.11.2020)
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