- US jobs report may confirm a July rate decrease
- Canadian data have been above expectations of late, what will today’s release show?
- Ivey PMI from Canada on the agenda too
8:30 am BST - Swedish industrial production for May
1:30 pm BST - US jobs report for June: US monetary policy has evolved to a large extent over the couple of recent weeks (other central banks have followed as well). From a promise to keep tightening monetary conditions the Fed has already switched to a mode signalling that rate decreases are needed. However, the truth is that the Fed has been forced by financial markets to become more dovish as it also the case in the past. Nevertheless, the latest sub-par macroeconomic releases from there could convince the Federal Reserve that cutting rates right now is a good choice. Today’s NFP may deliver a final confirmation of a change in US monetary policy. The consensus calls for 160k new jobs created outside agriculture. The unemployment rate should stay at 3.6% while average hourly earnings are expected to have risen 3.2% YoY.
1:30 pm BST - Canadian jobs report for June: First of all, one needs to be cognizant of overall upbeat macroeconomic data from the Canadian economy over the recent months. Those prints have been, at least on average, better than expectations, as evidenced by the Citi Economic Surprise index. For this reason market expectations for a rate cut there are relatively low with more than 30% probability for such a move by the year-end. Thus, further solid data are a must to keep these expectations low and allow the CAD to appreciate. The consensus indicates at 9.9k new jobs created in June, the jobless rate at 5.5% (up from 5.4%) and hourly earnings rising at 2.7% YoY.
3:00 pm BST - Canadian Ivey PMI for manufacturing
Central bankers’ speeches:
8:15 am BST - ECB’s de Guindos