Economic calendar: Focus on Brexit debate and ECB speakers

Summary:
- UK parliament to vote on Brexit deal amendments and alternatives today
- API data suggested oil inventories rose in the previous week
- Range of ECB members scheduled to speak today

Economic calendar looks thin on Tuesday but one should not be fooled that today is going to be a boring day. The UK parliament will launch debate on the Brexit deal alternatives at noon. A second-tier US data will be released half an hour later while DOE report on oil inventories should see daylight at 2:30 pm GMT. Last but not least, a number of ECB members is scheduled to speak today therefore one should be aware that elevated volatility on the EUR market may be present.

12:00 pm GMT - Brexit debate in the UK parliament. The UK parliament took control over the Brexit process earlier this week. Lawmakers from the United Kingdom will debate and vote on amendments and alternatives to Theresa May’s Brexit deal. However, one should be aware that even if the UK parliament backs any of the motions today there is no guarantee that the European Union will also support it. The debate is said to begin at noon and a total of 16 votes is expected to be held.

12:30 pm GMT - Trade data from the United States for January. Markets were offered little news on the state of Sino-US trade talks as of late. In turn, topic seldom made it to the top of the news flow. However, given that this skirmish is taking place between the world's two biggest economies, markets will eventually grow impatient and will demand information. Meanwhile, investors may follow monthly trade data from the United States to see whether already announced increased purchases of US goods are taking effect on the trade balance data. Market consensus expects a deficit of $57 billion.

2:30 am GMT - DOE report on oil inventories. In spite of expected decline, API estimates showed yesterday that oil inventories increased by 1.9 million barrels in the previous week. Such an outcome could threaten further rebound on the oil market in case it is confirmed by official data today. Both Brent and WTI are consolidating near 2019’s highs and strong impulse from data could be needed to allow prices of both grades to test their respective 200-session moving averages.

Central bank speakers scheduled for today:
- 8:00 am GMT - ECB President Draghi
- 8:00 am GMT - ECB’s Nowotny and Lautenschlaeger
- 8:45 am GMT - ECB’s Praet
- 10:00 am GMT - ECB’s Lautenschlaeger
- 10:45 am GMT - ECB’s de Guindos
- 1:30 pm GMT - ECB’s Mersch
- 5:00 pm GMT - Riksbank Governor Ingves
- 5:30 pm GMT - ECB’s Villeroy de Galhau

GBPUSD keeps trading in between the upward sloping trendline and the resistance zone ranging around the 1.33 handle. Note that the indecisiveness on this market is significant as shown by the latest two daily candlesticks (orange circle). Today’s debate is unlikely to trigger a break from the current trading range but may set the tone for the future of Brexit talks. Source: xStation5

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Morning wrap (27.11.2020)
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