Economic calendar: Focus on jobs data and Powell

Summary:

  • US employment report to steal the show today
  • Canadian jobs data could substantially affect the loonie
  • Fed's Powell on the agenda later Friday

9:00 am BST - Retail sales from Italy for July

10:00 am BST - Final GDP from EMU for Q2: Expectations suggest that the initial reading of 1.1% YoY growth will be confirmed. Along with the headline, we will be offered the details allowing us to assess the structure of economic growth in the past quarter. At the same time, final employment data for the second quarter will also be released. 

1:30 pm BST - Jobs report from the US for August: The ADP release stunned investors producing a number of new jobs well above the median estimate. However, one needs to be aware that private and governmental reports tend to decouple quite notably from time to time, thus today’s consensus of 160k created in the non-farm sector does not seem to be cautious at all. The consensus indicates that the jobless rate should stay at 3.7% while average hourly earnings are expected to have slowed to 3% from 3.2% (annual terms) in July. 

1:30 pm BST - Jobs report from Canada for August: Along with the employment report from the United States, the same reading will be released from Canada making the USDCAD remarkably exposed to heightened volatility during that time. Today’s release ought to be eagerly watched by market participants given the fact that the Canadian dollar appears to have quite a rosy outlook ahead. Let us remind that the Bank of Canada held rates unchanged earlier this week offering quite a hawkish statement (it singled out external risks though which have to be taken into consideration while preparing a set of updated macroeconomic forecasts next time), thus another solid reading should underpin this cautious hawkishness helping the loonie climb further. The consensus points to 20k new jobs added last month, the steady unemployment rate at 5.7% and annual wage growth at 4.5%, also unchanged from the previous month. 

3:00 pm BST - Canadian Ivey PMI

Central bankers’ speeches:

  • 5:30 pm BST - Fed’s Powell (he’ll be discussing the economic outlook and monetary policy at an event in Zurich, Q&A is scheduled)

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