Economic calendar: FOMC minutes in the spotlight


- FOMC minutes to be released in the evening
- Canadian CPI inflation forecasted to have decelerated below 2% in July
- Another solid reading from Poland expected to be released

9:00 am BST - Poland, Industrial and construction production for July. Labour market report for July released yesterday showed wage growth returning to the previous pace after significant deceleration in June. Today’s production report is expected to show industrial output rising 6.6% YoY and construction production increasing 5.4% YoY. However, the Polish zloty failed to catch a bid in the aftermath of yesterday’s release so one should be wary that today’s data may also be overlooked by investors.

1:30 pm BST - Canada, CPI inflation for July. Canada saw quite a significant spike in core inflation in May and the pace was upheld in June. Headline gauge also spiked in May but saw a deceleration in the following month. Market consensus points to a deceleration below the 2% handle. Note that Bank of Canada will meet in 2 weeks (4th September) and this data will certainly draw the attention of central bankers.

3:00 pm BST - US, Existing home sales for July. Existing home sales data is unlikely to trigger major price moves as USD traders are all about FOMC minutes today. However, in case of a major disappointment or surprise, a short-term price swing may occur. Analysts’ median estimate points to a reading of 5.35 million against last month’s 5.27 million.

3:30 pm BST - DOE report on oil inventories. API report released yesterday showed bigger than expected drop in oil stockpiles and has helped oil recoup intraday decline. A confirmation of 3.45 mb drop by DOE report could exert more upside pressure on prices as the market expects a decline of just 1.9 mb. Distillate stocks are seen coming in at 0.6 mb while gasoline stocks should be 0.1 mb higher than in the previous week.

7:00 pm BST - FOMC minutes. The Federal Reserve decided to cut interest rates for the first time in a decade at the end of July. The move was quite tricky as the US data was not calling for a cut. The Bank reasoned its decision saying that external factors are threat to growth. Today’s release may provide deeper insight into moods of the Fed members but one should keep in mind that it is Jackson Hole Symposium, starting on Friday, that has bigger scope to move the USD.

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