Economic calendar: GDP prints steal the show

Summary:
- Swedish GDP growth expected to slow slightly
- Delayed US GDP report will see daylight today
- Fed speakers may cause short-term price swings

In Thursday’s calendar one can find two noteworthy releases scheduled. Data pack from Sweden will be published in the morning and it will include GDP report for the final quarter of the previous year as well as retail sales print for the first month of 2019. Long-awaited US GDP report for Q4 2018 will see daylight in the early afternoon and there is high chance that volatility will increase. Number of Fed speakers rounds up the calendar.

8:30 am GMT - Sweden, Retail sales for January and GDP report for Q4 2018. The Swedish krone underperformed against both EUR and USD recently. Today’s GDP report could be a trigger for reversal but lacklustre industrial production and retail sales readings from year’s end do not support such scenario. Minor slowdown from 1.6% YoY to 1.5% YoY is expected. Simultaneously, retail sales print for January will be released and it is expected to show a 0.7% MoM advance.

1:30 pm GMT - US, GDP report for Q4 2018. After a more or less month-long delay the US GDP report for the final quarter of the previous year will finally see daylight. As signs of a looming slowdown were spotted in various parts of the globe as of late, investors are curious whether it applies to the world’s biggest economy too. Housing data in the fourth quarter was poor and so were retail sales in December. Having said that, an expected slowdown from 3.4% YoY to 2.3% YoY may be well justified.

Central bank speakers scheduled for today:
- 10:00 am GMT - Norges Bank Governor Olsen
- 1:00 pm GMT - Fed’s Clarida
- 1:50 pm GMT - Fed’s Bostic
- 4:00 pm GMT - Fed’s Harker
- 6:00 pm GMT - Fed’s Kaplan

USDSEK pushed higher and reached 2-month high recently. The pair moved lower this week as USD underperformed and may be set to retest the breakout level around 9.20 handle. However, a SEK-positive trigger from data could be needed. Source: xStation5

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