Economic calendar: German inflation in the spotlight

Summary:

  • Preliminary inflation readings from Germany and Spain to draw attention today
  • A bunch of soft indicators from the EC for the Eurozone economy (and other countries as well)
  • Third reading of US GDP for the first quarter and a regional Fed index from Kansas

10:00 am BST - soft indicators from the EC for June: A set of indicators being released each month by the European Commission could be used like a comparison to PMIs. In general, economic confidence is forecast to have ticked down in June to 104.8 from 105.1. Industrial confidence is expected to have slightly deteriorated whereas services confidence should show a slight improvement. 

1:00 pm BST - German inflation for June: German price growth lost momentum in May as it fell to 1.3% from 2.1% in annual terms, reaching its lowest level since the start of 2018. Expectations for today do point to neither a rebound nor a further decline in terms of a HICP measure. Having in mind what we have recently got from the European Central Bank and Mario Draghi in particular, one may suppose that incoming data might be critical, especially those prints from the inflation front. Therefore, without higher inflation the ECB could become more convinced that some action is needed. Earlier (8:00 am BST) the inflation report from Spain will be released.

1:30 pm BST - Third print of US Q1 GDP, jobless claims: The third and last reading of US GDP growth in the first quarter is expected to show 3.2% QoQ of annualized growth compared to 3.1% QoQ in the second reading. In turn, a weekly report on jobless claims is expected to show 220k new applicants. 

3:00 pm BST - US pending home sales for May: The consensus points to a 1% MoM rise compared to a 1.5% MoM decline in the previous month.

4:00 pm BST - Regional Fed index from Kansas: The regional index for manufacturing is forecast to have declined to 1 from 4, in line with falls seen in other regional Fed indices for this month. 

Central bankers’ speeches: 

  • 9:00 am BST - ECB’s Nowotny

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