Economic calendar: German survey data and central bankers

Summary:
- ZEW Economic Sentiment index expected to deteriorate in June
- Mario Draghi, Mark Carney and Janet Yellen to participate in a policy panel discussion in Sintra, Portugal
- API report forecasted to show a 1.3 million barrel drop in US stockpiles

8:00 am BST - Turkey, Industrial production for April. The Turkish lira has been losing ground as of late due to the USD strengthening and lacklustre domestic data. Homes sales data released yesterday showed a major 31.3% YoY drop as high interest rates slowed credit action. Today’s industrial production print is expected to show a 2.5% YoY drop. While this may seem weak on the face of it, one should keep in mind that industrial output data has improved in the past 4 consecutive months.

10:00 am BST - Germany, ZEW Economic Sentiment for June. Moods among German institutional investors were poor over the past year to say the least. During that time the German ZEW Economic Sentiment index revisited levels not seen since late-2012. The data improved at the beginning of 2019 and reading for April even showed a non-negative figure. However, last month’s print showed decline to -2.1 pts and market consensus expects deterioration to continue with reading for June forecasted to come in at -5.7 pts.

1:30 am BST - US, Housing market data for May. The US housing market showed signs of struggling earlier this year but remained strong. With raising chances of a rate cut in the US, data from this segment of the economy may start to improve. Building permits are expected to remain flat in May while housing starts should drop 0.4% MoM. Nevertheless, one should keep in mind that when it comes to the USD, this week is all about tomorrow’s Fed meeting.

9:40 pm BST - API report on crude oil inventories. In spite of declines hinted by seasonal patterns, the oil inventories data keeps showing strong builds. Trade wars bite into the demand for oil exerting additional pressure and increased tensions on the Middle East were not enough to offset price declines so far. The OPEC meeting next week (25 June) may make the situation a bit more clear but until then oil traders have to focus on stockpiles data. API estimates are expected to show a 1.3 mb decline.

Central bankers’ speeches:
- 9:00 am BST - ECB President Draghi (Introductory speech)
- 3:00 pm BST - BoE Governor Carney, ECB President Draghi & former Fed Chairman Janet Yellen (panel discussion)

EURGBP delivered an insane upward move during the past month and a half as euro regained some ground and the British pound remained pressured by the Brexit drama. The pair is trading just a notch below the resistance zone ranging 0.8860-0.9000, a hurdle that limited upward moods throughout the second half of 2017 and saw price reaction in 2018 as well. The pair may become more active in the afternoon during Draghi-Carney panel. Source: xStation5

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