Economic calendar: Hard nut to crack for ECB

Summary:

  • Final EMU GDP reading for the first quarter to be released before noon
  • ECB to present its fresh economic forecasts as well as new LTRO details
  • Trade data from the US and Canada on the agenda

10:00 am BST - EMU GDP for Q1: The Eurozone economy expanded 0.4% in quarterly terms during the first three months, according to the flash release from the Eurostat. Today, we will be given a breakdown of this growth which should shed more light on domestic demand and how much growth was driven by components like net exports and inventories - unsustainable in the longer-term.

12:45/1:30 pm BST - ECB rate decision/press conference: The European Central Bank has a hard nut to crack in June. In December it ended its bond buying programme, just before the car industry crisis in the western Europe. Then, several months later it decided to step in again and announced a new round of LTRO - the details regarding funding costs, limits and so on will be released later today. On top of that, the ECB will also publish fresh economic projections which will likely show a lowered path for economic growth as well as inflation. The key will be its forward guidance in terms of a possibility of rate cuts (is it possible to see the ECB to lower rates yet more?) and a new QE programme if needed.

1:30 pm BST - Trade data from the US/Canada for April: Economic released related to foreign trade have become much more eagerly watched of late due to rising protectionism. The consensus before today’s data suggests a 2.8 billion CAD deficit for Canada and a $50.7 billion deficit in case of the US. Apart from these readings, we will also be offered unit labor costs as well as labour productivity data from the US for the first quarter.

3:00 pm BST - Ivey PMI from Canada for May: The consensus points to a rise to 56.2 from 55.9.

Central bankers’ speeches:

  • 9:25 am BST - BoJ’s Kuroda

  • 1:30 pm BST - ECB’s Draghi

  • 1:40 pm BST - Fed’s Kaplan

  • 6:00 pm BST - Fed’s Williams

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