Economic calendar: Key data from the US and the UK

Summary:
- German ZEW index expected to decline further in July
- US retail sales and production data to be released in the afternoon
- Powell speech in the evening

9:30 am BST - UK, Labour market data for May. The UK data has been a huge disappointment recently. PMIs dipped into contraction zone, production figures were worse-than-expected and CPI held steady. Moreover, it is still not known who will be the next Prime Minister. GBPUSD treads water near multi-month lows and today's labour market data may trigger a long-awaited price impulse. Earnings growth in June is expected to accelerate to 3.2% YoY from 3.1% YoY in April and the unemployment rate is forecasted to stay unchanged at 3.8%.

10:00 am BST - Germany, ZEW economic sentiment for July. The German survey data has been a major drag on the European assets as of late. Both, the manufacturing PMI and ZEW economic sentiment indices have plunged. The latter saw a steep drop from -2.1 pts to -21.1 pts in June and the market expects more weakness. The index is expected to dip to -22.1 pts in July and any decline bigger than that could exert pressure on the euro and the European stocks.

1:30 pm BST - US, Retail sales for June. In spite of the global manufacturing activity plunging, the US economy is holding quite firm. The US retail sales had three consecutive months of decent growth from March to May and more signs of a healthy economy could make Fed reconsider its easing plans. Headline gauge is expected to show growth of 0.1% MoM while the core measure (excluding cars and fuel) is forecasted to move 0.3% MoM higher.

2:15 pm BST - US, Industrial and manufacturing production for June. The US industrial production figures in 2019 were mixed but in general there were more months of growth. The same cannot be said about manufacturing production as it showed declines from January to April. However, manufacturing activity rebounded in May and another month of growth could improve the sentiment towards the US dollar. Industrial production is expected to have increased 0.1% MoM in June while manufacturing production is seen rising 0.2% MoM.

9:40 pm BST - API report on oil inventories. API and DOE reports on oil inventories showed declines last week and provided crude prices with a boost. However, a pullback on the market occured since as weather no longer threatens oil production facilities in the Gulf of Mexico. Now the question remains whether this disruptions will be reflected in oil inventories data.

Central bankers’ speeches:
- 8:00 am BST - ECB’s Villeroy
- 1:00 pm BST - BoE Governor Carney
- 1:15 pm BST - Fed’s Bostic
- 1:15 pm BST - Fed’s Bowman
- 5:20 pm BST - Fed’s Kaplan
- 6:00 pm BST - Fed Chairman Powell
- 8:30 pm BST - Fed’s Evans

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