- NFP report expected to show solid wage growth once more
- Another set of indicative votes to be held in the UK parliament
- Pack of survey data to be released today
There has been a lot of speculation about recession and the next financial crisis following a dismal set of data from the European economy. The first week of April will serve us a plate of very important reports not just from Europe but also the US and Asia. Among reading scheduled for Monday one can find:
- 9:00 am CET - Euro area, Manufacturing PMI for March. Expected: 47.6 pts
- 9:30 am CET - UK, Manufacturing PMI for March. Expected: 51 pts
- 10:00 am CET - Euro area, CPI inflation for March. Expected: 1.5% YoY
- 1:30 pm CET - US, Retail sales for February. Expected: 0.4% MoM
- 3:00 pm CET - US, ISM manufacturing for March. Expected: 54.2 pts
Apart from that, the UK parliament is set to vote on a pack of indicative votes today after Theresa May’s Brexit deal got defeated once again last week. However, it is highly likely that the divided political scene of the United Kingdom will fail to unite once again as little hope was sown over the weekend. The debates preceding votes will start in the afternoon, no sooner than 2:30 pm GMT.
What to watch for the remainder of the week?
US reports: ISM non-manufacturing, ADP (Wednesday, 4:00 pm CET), the NFP report (Friday, 2:30 pm CET)
This will be a very important week for the US dollar. We already know that the Fed is done with the policy tightening but a strong labour market (especially higher wage growth) could cut hopes for any interest rate cuts. On the other hand, a weak employment growth could fuel slowdown worries. ISM indices will be very important as well after both US markit PMIs indicated economic slowdown in March. Affected markets: US500, USDJPY.
German data on factory orders (Thursday, 8:00 am CET) and industrial output (Friday, 8:00 am CET)
Germany is in the spotlight after a massive drop in manufacturing PMI. Investors will be looking if that is confirmed in the hard data on orders and output. Expectations are quite low already, so could that be a chance? Affected markets: DE30, EURUSD.
Data from the oil market (Wednesday, 4:30 pm CET)
Oil prices remain high despite a strong dollar and uncertain economic prospects. The reason is limited supply from OPEC. We are now in the period where US inventory data will be watched with vigilance so traders should pay attention to the report on Wednesday. Affected markets: OIL, OIL.WTI.
EURUSD dipped towards the 1.12 handle last week on the back of the USD strength. The pair is trading to regain some ground today but may need a solid German factory orders print for a bigger upward move. Resistance zone ranging 1.1300-1.1320 can be seen as the first target for bulls as 50-session moving average boosts significance of this area. Source: xStation5