Economic calendar: NFP to dominate the day

Summary:

  • US employment report will be the most important release today
  • Retail sales from EMU to be published before noon
  • US (final) durable goods orders and consumer confidence data

8:30 am BST - manufacturing PMI from Switzerland for July: The consensus calls for 47.5, down from 47.7 seen in June. 

9:30 am BST - construction PMI from the UK for July: The index is expected to have had a nice rebound to 46 from 43.1. However, there is no doubt it will be a second-tier reading given the fact that Brexit-related stories should be much more important. Such a notion was also shared by the BoE yesterday.

10:00 am BST - PPI and retail sales from EMU for June: Expectations suggest that we should get PPI at 0.8% YoY, down from 1.6% YoY while retail sales is forecast to have risen 0.3% MoM, there was a 0.3% MoM decline in the prior month. 

1:30 pm BST - NFP, trade data from the US for July/June: The unexpected announcement from Donald Trump is undoubtedly a game-changer for the Federal Reserve taking into account the fact that Jerome Powell was repeatedly underlining the importance of risks related to the US-Sino trade battle. Thus, once data deteriorate even more, it could push up odds for a third rate cut this year even higher. The consensus points the US economy has added 165k new jobs last month, wage growth to have stayed at 3.1% YoY while the unemployment rate to have fallen to 3.6% from 3.7%. On top of that, the trade data for June should show a subtly lower deficit compared to May. 

3:00 pm BST - factory orders, durable goods orders (final) for June and UoM (final) for July: The Bloomberg median estimate suggests factory orders have rebounded 0.7% MoM while the final reading of US consumer confidence should stay close to its preliminary value of 98.4. 

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