Economic calendar: Politics overshadow data

  • Risk trades gain as Republicans and Democrats agree on stimulus

  • UK CPI slowed in-line with expectations in February

  • Drop expected in US durable goods order in February

Risk assets continue to gain today after Republicans and Democrats finally agreed to a stimulus package. A vote is expected later today but it should be a done deal. However, be aware that politics are currently the driving force in the markets therefore any comments from Trump on the stimulus package may have some market impact. US and European futures are trading higher ahead of the cash session open. One of the major data releases scheduled for today - UK CPI inflation for February - has already been released after the Office of National Statistics decided to start publishing market moving data ahead of session open (7:00 am GMT). Report showed headline price growth slowing from 1.8% to 1.7% YoY, in-line with expectations.

9:00 am GMT - Germany, Ifo index for March. Expected: 87.5 pts. Previous: 96 pts

12:30 pm GMT - US durable good orders for February (flash).

  • Headline. Expected: -0.8% MoM. Previous: -0.2% MoM

  • Excluding Transport. Expected: -0.3% MoM. Previous: +0.8% MoM

2:30 pm GMT - DOE report on oil inventories. API data released yesterday pointed to a 1.2 million barrel draw in crude inventories. Oil is making a small rebound this week but outlook for demand remains poor after India, a country of 1.3 billion people, decided to impose national lockdown. Having said that, today’s release is likely to have only a short-term impact on the market.

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