- Swedish CPI inflation expected to slow in March
- Semi-important US data to be released at 1:30 pm CET
Given how abundant economic calendar was yesterday, Thursday looks to be more calm. Only a few data prints are scheduled and neither of them is a typical market moving reading. Swedish CPI inflation will be released in the morning while labour and inflation data from the United States will take the spotlight in the early afternoon.
8:30 am CET - Sweden, CPI inflation for March. Riksbank was expected to raise interest rates in the second half of 2019. While the Bank did not rule out such a scenario, more dovish stance of the European Central Bank makes it rather improbable. Money market hints that there is around 45% chance for a rate hike to be delivered during December’s meeting while at the beginning of January it was over 75%. A pick-up in inflation could encourage Riksbank to raise rates but it would need to be a significant one as the Bank is reluctant to diverging its policy from the ECB. However, market consensus expectes a slowdown to 1.8% YoY.
1:30 pm CET - Data from the United States. FOMC minutes released yesterday pushed USD lower as the document showed policymakers being concerned about muted inflation. Prints scheduled for today are unlikely to trigger any major price moves but may complement the picture presented by earlier releases. PPI inflation is expected to stay intact at 1.9% YoY while initial jobless claims for the week ended 6 April should reach 208k.
Central bank speakers scheduled for today:
- 2:30 pm CET - Fed’s Clarida
- 2:35 pm CET - Fed’s Williams
- 2:40 pm CET - Fed’s Bullard
- 6:00 pm CET - BoC Senior Deputy Wilkins
- 7:00 pm CET - Fed’s Kashkari
- 9:00 pm CET - Fed’s Bowman
USDSEK has been trading within an upward price channel since mid-2018. Following a bounce off the lower limit of the channel the pair began to struggle in the vicinity of the 50-session moving average (green line on the chart). The support zone ranging 9.20-9.23 should be the first hurdle limiting the downward moves over the short term. Source: xStation5