Economic calendar: Several crucial readings to focus on

Summary:

  • Inflation from EMU and the US

  • Q1 GDP from the UK (final), monthly GDP for April from Canada

  • US personal income and spending to tell more about consumption there

9:30 am BST - British GDP for Q1: The final reading is expected to match the previous one, hence the annual pace of growth should remain in 1.8% YoY. 

10:00 am BST - EMU inflation for June: Data from Germany released yesterday came in line with expectations, however, the value of 1.3% YoY is still far away below the ECB objective. On the other hand, the reading from France came in above the consensus. Expectations ahead of today’s reading at the European level point to 1.2% YoY, the same as it was in May. At the same time, core prices are expected to have accelerated to 1% YoY from 0.8% YoY previously. Overall, price pressure in the Eurozone remains subdued which seems to warrant the latest turnaround of the ECB’s stance. Markets seem to be cognizant of a scenario that the ECB injects more liquidity to the system (despite the high degree of excess liquidity already seen). 

1:30 am BST - Canadian GDP for April: The Canadian economy is one of the few developed countries where expectations for rate cuts are fairly low (a bit more than 35% until the year-end). This seems to be fully justified by macroeconomic data as they have tended to surprise to the upside so far this year as opposed to what we have seen in the US. Thus, subsequent robust prints should keep rate cut expectations in check providing a boost for the Loonie. The consensus ahead of today’s reading points to 1.6% YoY GDP growth in April, up from 1.4% YoY in March. 

1:30 am BST - US PCE, personal income and spending for May: Today’s data on spending will equip us with a more comprehensive picture of private consumption in the US (retail sales cover just roughly half of overall spending). Personal spending is forecast to have risen 0.5% MoM in May, whereas personal income should show a 0.3% MoM rise. On top of that, core PCE inflation ought to show a 1.5% YoY increase, the same as it was in April. 

Central bankers’ speeches:

  • 20:20 pm BST - Fed’s Daly

Morning wrap
Daily summary: Global equities rally led by financials
Inovio’s stock plunged as COVID vaccine trial is put on hold
Coronavirus: market update
Economic calendar: Brexit and labour data in focus this week
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