Economic calendar: Soft indicators and ADP to draw attention

Summary:

  • UK services PMI is expected to become unchanged, risks tilted to the downside

  • ADP report will show the performance of the US labour market in June

  • US non-manufacturing ISM to offer some clues ahead of NFP

8:30 am BST - Riksbank’s rate decision: The consensu does not assume any changes in rates today.

9:30 am BST - UK services PMI for June: The two PMIs from the UK we got earlier this week came in below expectations, this is especially true when it comes to construction and a substantial decline in activity there. Meanwhile, economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect that the services sector has stayed unchanged, hence the index should show 51 points, the same as it was the case in May. On top of that, we will be offered final services PMIs from other European countries. 

1:15 pm BST - ADP employment report for June: The latest hard data from the United States have been below expectations, therefore the Federal Reserve have had a chance to become yet more confident as for the first rate cut (possibly later this month). Keep in mind that splendid numbers from the US labour market offered for June could still affect the Fed’s decision in July. The consensus points to 140k new jobs created last month. 

1:30 pm BST - US trade data and initial jobless claims: The consensus suggests the US economy had a $54 billion deficit in May. In turn, a number of new jobless claims last week is forecast to have increased by 223k.

3:00 pm BST - US non-manufacturing ISM for June/ durable goods orders for May (final): The consensus for today’s ISM print points to 56 points, down from 56.9. However, one needs to remember that the same indicator for manufacturing turned out to be somewhat better than expected, thus it can be the case later today as well. At the same time the report on durable goods orders for May will also be released (the final one). In turn, 15 minutes before a release of ISM we will get the final value of PMI for June. 

Central bankers’ speeches: 

  • 9:00 am BST - ECB’s Nowotny

  • 10:00 am BST - a press conference after the Riksbank’s meeting

  • 11:00 am BST - BoE’s Cunliffe

  • 12:00 pm BST - Riksbank’s Ohlsson

  • 1:15 pm BST - BoE’s Broadbent

  • 2:00 pm BST - Riksbank’s Floden

  • 3:00 pm BST - ECB’s Villeroy

  • (tentative) - Polish central bank rate decision - no change in rates is expected

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