Economic calendar: Soft indicators from Germany and US

Summary:

  • IFO index for June will be released before noon
  • Regional Fed index from Chicago for May will be published this afternoon, don't expect it to be a market mover though; the same index from Dallas will also be released
  • Retail sales and construction output from Poland for May

9:00 am BST - Poland’s retail sales for May: The Polish economy keeps thriving despite risks being localized outside the country. Economic growth remains robust, the labour market keeps offering well-paid jobs and inflation stays slightly below the NBP’s objective despite the latest acceleration. On top of that, Poland’s GDP growth will be supported in the second half of the year by a fiscal package which is forecast to bump up real incomes and thereby consumption alike. The consensus for today shows a 1.9% MoM decline in retail sales caused mainly by base effects. At the same time construction production data for May will also be released.

9:00 am BST - German IFO for June: A set of preliminary PMIs for June did not offer any livelier recovery in European manufacturing, hence there is unlikely that we will see so today when the IFO index for June is published. The median estimate points to a deterioration to 97.4 from 97.9, weaker prints compared to the values for May are also forecast in case of expectations and the current assessment.

1:30/3:30 pm BST - Chicago/Dallas Fed index for May/June: The regional Fed index from Chicago is released with a notable delay, hence it is rather a poor predictor of economic activity. Let us remind that we were offered a rebound in a majority of Fed indices in May followed by a brutal reality check in the next month. The consensus for today’s Chicago Fed index suggests a bounce to -0.05 from -0.45. Apart from it, we will be offered the same index from Dallas for June (two hours later) where an improvement to -2 from -5.3 points is forecast.

The EURUSD is approaching 1.14 in early trading. The US dollar had a tough end of the past week following the Federal Reserve meeting. Source: xStation5

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