Economic calendar: Turkish central bank may overshadow ECB’s show


  • ECB’s rate decision to be the top event on Thursday
  • CBRT is expected to make a big rate cut
  • Preliminary durable goods orders from the US for June

8:30 am BST - Swedish PPI for June

9:00 am BST - German IFO for July: Along with PMIs it is the most eagerly watched soft indicator in the German economy. The consensus points to a slight decrease to 97.2 from 97.4 and subtle declines are expected in case of expectations and current conditions as well. However, keep in mind that after the gloomy manufacturing PMI one needs to be cognizant of a possible disappointment this time around.

12:00 pm BST - Turkish central bank rate decision: A lot has happened in Turkish economy in recent weeks with the latest shocking decision of Recep Erdogan to dismiss the CBRT Governor. Having that in mind, market expectations point to a heavy 250 bps rate cut (one-week repo) at today’s meeting. The TRY could experience sizeable volatility during the day. 

12:45/1:30 pm BST - ECB rate decision/press conference: The base case for markets is the ECB to stay on hold with rates today, but it could be a toss-up given the fact that expectations show almost 40% odds for a 10 bps deposit rate cut on Thursday. Thus elevated volatility could arise already around a rate decision itself. Nevertheless, the key event for today will be a press conference of Mario Draghi starting 45 minutes after the decision announcement.

1:30 pm BST - US durable goods orders for June: The preliminary reading for June will show if economic activity has lost momentum in the final month of the second quarter. The consensus indicates at a 0.7% MoM increase and a 0.2% increase when it comes to core orders which strip out transportation. 

4:00 pm BST - Regional Fed index from Kansas for July: The Bloomberg median estimate points to a bounce to 3 from 0 points.

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