Economic calendar: US survey data in the spotlight

Summary

- Hungarian central bank expected to leave rates unchanged
- Major deterioration forecasted in Conference Board data
- BoE’s Tenreyro and ECB’s de Guindos to speak on monetary policy

1:00 pm BST - Hungary, interest rate decision. The Hungarian forint has been underperforming as of late and is quoted near multi-year lows against CHF, EUR and USD. The Hungarian National Bank is likely to leave main interest rate unchanged at 0.9% today and, in turn, no major market reaction should occur. Forint, just like other currencies from the region (for example the Polish zloty), has been more vulnerable to external factors rather than domestic data recently. 

3:00 pm BST - US, Conference Board Consumer Confidence for August. UoM consumer sentiment data released earlier this month showed a major deterioration as consumers considered Fed’s rate cut as a sign of impending recession. In turn, Michigan headline index dipped to the lowest level in 7 months. Confirmation of such a reading by CB data could weigh on investors’ moods and exert some pressure on USD. Median estimate points to a drop to 130 pts from 135.7 pts in July. Simultaneously, Richmond Manufacturing Index for August will be released and it is expected to jump from -12 pts to -8 pts.

9:40 pm BST - API report on oil inventories. Oil was surging yesterday attempting to recover from Friday’s declines. Nevertheless, comments hinting at the possibility of holding Trump-Rouhani meeting caused crude prices to erase daily gain. As always, API estimates released today will set expectations ahead of tomorrow’s DOE report. However, one should keep in mind that in terms of last week’s DOE report market was more concerned about gasoline and distillate data rather than crude oil one. 

Central bankers’ speeches:

- 1:00 pm BST - BoE’s Tenreyro & ECB’s de Guindos

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