- Improved risk sentiment sparked by China's credit data, market participants await a GDP release from China
- RBA expresses yet more dovish remarks, a possible change in the current trend in AUDNZD
- Oil prices react to news about a possible termination of the OPEC+ production cuts
The German DE30 is moving higher on Tuesday being supported by upbeat risk sentiment present in other markets too. This improvement came after the latest Chinese data showing a substantial increase in credit supply in the first quarter. On top of that, recent soft indicators have also improved including the German ZEW index released earlier today. In April the index came back above the flat line and reached 3.1 points, beating the consensus of 0.8. Technically the DE30 is testing the important resistance and one may suppose that the price could struggle around 12200 points. If so, a possible corrective move could go to the 50% retracement of the latest leg lower.
After reaching the resistance nearby the 38.2% retracement the cross is moving lower. Let us remind that a bounce we saw in mid-March resulted from a dovish stance of the RBNZ. However, the RBA minutes published today increased the odds that a possible rate cut there could take place before long. Based on Capital Economics forecasts one may anticipate as many as 3 rate cuts by the year-end. The technical landscape seems to suggest that bears could try to take control.
Oil prices (WTI) have outperformed Brent prices so far this year and this pattern has been even more pronounced in recent weeks. This is a result of market expectations regarding the US shale industry overheating. However, the most recent declines in prices have come mainly from speculation with regard to a possible increase of production limits for OPEC+ countries as soon as in June. Nevertheless, we are still some time left till June and we are slowly entering the driving season in the US which could act somewhat in favour of higher crude prices. In theory, a possible pullback could move as low as $62.2 per barrel. Note that slightly below this level the lower boundary of the upward channel is localized. Based on the inverted SHS pattern which occurred in the past year one may expect that possible gains could continue until $66/67.