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USDCAD back near 1:32 after mixed retail sales


  • Canadian retail sales Y/Y: +1.7%. Core Y/Y: +1.6%
  • Loonie remains slightly higher on the day
  • USDCAD searching for direction back near $1.32

The latest look at consumer spending in Canada has revealed some mixed messages with the latest retail sales figures topping estimates but the core numbers disappointed. Specifically, the headline retail sales Y/Y was +1.7% while the ex-autos (core) came in at 1.6% over the same time horizon. Both of these metrics have recovered from their recent lows when they were pretty much flat but compared to the rest of this decade they remain at depressed levels. M/M readings are more erratic but can give a better indication of short-term changes, and on this front the headline declined by 0.1% vs -0.3% expected with the previous reading still -0.9%. The core reading of -0.5% was below the 0.3% expected, while the prior was revised down by 0.1% to -0.7%.

Retail sales may have bounced back in Y/Y terms, but they remain relatively weak compared to the past decade. Source: XTB Macrobond


Overall the data could be seen as slightly soft for the Canadian dollar, with the core reading often being viewed more keenly that the headline, but all in all it’s not really game changing in itself. Looking back across the week, it’s been a pretty steady one for the Loonie, with the currency sitting towards the middle of its range and the only real significant moves, such as those in the pound and Kiwi coming due to the other side of the pair.

The Canadian dollar has had a fairly uneventful week and trades pretty flat on the whole, with the only moves of note coming against the GBP and NZD and these were both due to the other side of the pair. Source: xStation

USDCAD remains below the cloud with a confirmed break with all lines supporting the move. The highs around the cloud at 1.3375 could be seen as important resistance while 1.3180 and 1.3070 are levels to keep an eye on below. Source: xStation

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